1 Nov 2008


DEARBORN HEIGHTS/DEARBORN - Illinois Sen. Barack Obama will win Tuesday's election and become the next president of the United States, according to a recent poll conducted by Zogby International, an American market research and opinion-polling firm.

Their Reuters/C-SPAN/-Zogby Poll out Friday morning indicates the support for both candidates had solidified and remained unchanged from the previous several days. Obama was at 50.1 percent among likely voters, while McCain was at 43 percent. That put Obama outside the margin of error five days before the actual vote.

"With less than a week to go, today's numbers are not a good development for McCain," said John Zogby, founder of Zogby International. "There is no momentum for him, and the clock is starting to fun short."

Out of 1, 202 likely voters polled Oct. 27-29, Obama increased his lead among independent voters to 19 points — up from 16 points on Oct. 29 — while McCain's support among his base of Republican voters waned just slightly, dropping two points to 85 percent.

Obama's support among Democratic Party voters remained steady at 84 percent, the poll showed.

According to the Zogby International Web site, www.zogby.com, the poll sampled 1,202 likely voters by phone with approximately 33 questions asked. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using live telephone interviewers in Zogby's in-house call center in Upstate New York.

A poll released Thursday shows Obama leads by five points among men, 49 percent to 44 percent for McCain. Among women, the Democratic candidate leads by a 10-point margin, 52 percent to 42 percent.

Among liberals, Obama wins 86 percent support, while McCain wins 75 percent of conservatives. Among moderates, Obama wins 65 percent support, compared to 26 percent for McCain.

"But six days, including Election Day, is an eternity and McCain cannot be counted out yet, though he may need a wing and a prayer," Zogby said Thursday.

According to a Zogby poll conducted Oct. 10-15, Arab American voters are expected to have a significant impact on Tuesday's election. The poll sampled 504 likely voters with approximately 41 questions asked. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

The poll finds about one-third of Arab Americans live in battleground states — Michigan, Virginia, Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. In Michigan, Arab Americans comprise about 5 percent of the state's total population, compared to 1.5 percent in Pennsylvania.

According to the poll, Obama leads McCain by a three-to-one margin among Arab American voters, in both the two-way match-up and the four-way match-ups. This represents the greatest support ever recorded for a Presidential candidate among Arab American voters, the poll finds.

Vice presidential candidate Joe Biden also out-performs Republican candidate Sarah Palin among all groups, including Arab Americans, with Biden's margin being 58/31 and Palin's 58/39.

When asked to name the two most important issued in the election, jobs and the economy were the most frequently mentioned, according to the poll. The second and third most important issues are the Iraq war and health care.

A recent statement issued by Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land said than an estimated 5 million voters, or approximately 70 percent of registered voters, will case ballots on the Nov. 4 election.

SOURCE: Press&Guide
"Voter enthusiasm is at an all-time high and because of that I expect an unprecedented number of voters to attend the polls on Election Day," Land said. "I encourage you to take time to educate yourself on the candidate and issues, and the cast your ballot on Election Day."

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