27 Oct 2020



Pengine umeshawahi kusikia jina la Profesa Allan Lichtman wa Marekani ambaye ana rekodi ya miaka 30 ya kutabiri kwa usahihi kabisa matokeo ya urais katika nchi hiyo. 



Pengine utabiri uliompatia umaarufu zaidi ni wa mwaka 2016 ambapo takriban kila kura ya maoni ilionyesha kuwa mgombea wa chama cha Democrats, Hillary Clinton, angemshinda mpinzani wake wa chama cha Republican, Donald Trump.

Profesa huyo anatumia vipengele 13 vinavyopatikana kwenye kitabu chake kiitwacho "The Keys To The White House" (funguo za kuingilia Ikulu ya Marekani).

Katika vipengele hivyo 13 ni kauli zenye mrengo wa ushindi kwa mgombea aliyepo madarakani. Kwa muktadha wa Tanzania, vipengele hivi hapa chini vinamhusu Rais John Magufuli wa chama tawala CCM anayechuana vikali na mpinzani wake mkuu, Tundu Lissu wa Chadema.

Endapo majibu ya SI KWELI (FALSE) ni matano au pungufu kwa vipengele hivyo, basi mgombea aliyepo madarakani anatabiriwa kushinda. Lakini endapo majibu ya SI KWELI (FALSE) yatakuwa sita au zaidi, basi mgombea huyo ataanguka kwenye uchaguzi husika.

Naomba nitahadharishe kuwa hii ni mara ya kwanza kwa kanuni hii kutumika kutabiri matokeo ya urais nchini Tanzania. Hata hivyo nimejiridhisha kuwa japo Profesa Lichtman alilenga chaguzi za rais wa Marekani, zaweza pia kutumika kwa muktadha wa Tanzania.

1. The incumbent party holds more seats in the Tanzanian National Assembly TRUE

Chama cha mgombea aliyepo madarakani [yaani Magufuli na CCM yake] kina viti vingi bungeni KWELI


2. There was no serious contest for the incumbent nomination. TRUE

Hakukuwa na kinyang’anyiro kikali katika kumpata mgombea aliyepo madarakani [Magufuli] KWELI


3. The incumbent party us the sitting president. TRUE

Mgombea huyo ndiye rais aliyepo madarakani KWELI


4. There is no significant third party. TRUE

Hakuna chama cha tatu katika kinyang’anyiro cha urais KWELI [mchuano wa mwaka huu ni kati ya CCM na Chadema]


5. The short-term economy is not in recession during the election campaign FALSE

Uchumi wa muda mfupi haupo katika mdororo katika kipindi cha kampeni SI KWELI [Japo takwimu zinaweza kuonyesha kuwa Tanzania haipo kwenye mdodoro wa kiuchumi, ugumu wa maisha kwa mamilioni ya Watanzania ni kama nchi ipo kwenye mdodoro wa kiuchumi]


6. The long-term economy is not in recession during the election campaign. FALSE

Uchumi wa muda mrefu haupo kwenye mdodoro katika kipindi cha kampeni za uchaguzi SI KWELI [hapa pia kwa kuangalia athari za janga la korona duniani yayumkinika kuhitimisha kuwa uchumi wa muda mrefu wa Tanzania utakuwa kwenye mdodoro]


7. The incumbent administration affects major policy changes in national policy FALSE (Economic nationalism and the so-called “strategic projects” -  USD 14.2 billion in SGR, USD 2.9 billion in the construction of 2.100 MW Rufiji hydropower project, multimil-lion dollar purchase of 11 planes in the revival of the national air-line ATC, construction of an international l airstrip at Magufuli’s Chato hometown , to name but a few, have mostly been shrouded in secret.

Serikali ya mgombea aliyepo madarakani inafanikisha sera kubwa kwenye sera za kitaifa SI KWELI [hapa sera muhimu ya Magufuli imekuwa “utaifa wa kiuchumi” hiyo vita dhidi ya mabeberu, sambamba na Miradi Kabambe – SGR inayogharimu dola za kimarekani bilioni 14.2, ujenzi wa bwawa la kuzalisha umeme wa maporomoko ya maji wa megawati 2100 huko Rujiji, wenye thamani ya dola za kimarekani bilioni 2.9, ufufuaji Shirika la Ndege la Tanzania unaogharimu mamilioni ya dola, ujenzi wa uwanja wa ndege wa kimataifa huko Chato, kutaja baadhi tu ya miradi hiyo kabambe ambayo yote imegubikwa na usiri mkubwa na sio maarufu kwa wananchi wengi wanaodhani vipaumbele vinapaswa kuwa kwingineko]


8. The is no sustained social unrest during the term FALSE (Alt-hough Magufuli’s 5 years in power managed to quash any potential protests, several human rights reports have indicated that majority of Tanzanians are living in fear as repression mounts. Furthermore, Magufuli’s term has been engulfed with scores of abductions by “watu wasiojulikana” (unknown assailants), disappearances, assas-sination plots, etc.)

Hakuna machafuko katika kipindi cha utawala wa mgombea aliyepo madarakani SI KWELI (Japo katika miaka yake mitano, Magufuli amefanikiwa kudhibiti maandamano, ripoti kadhaa za haki za binadamu zimeonyesha kuwa Watanzania wengi wanaishi kwa hofu. Kadhalika, muhula wa Magufuli umegubikwa na watu lukuki kutekwa na “watu wasiojulikana,” kupotea [kama Ben Saanane na Azory Gwanda], majaribio ya kuua watu [kama dhidi ya Lissu])



9. The incumbent admin is untainted by major scandal FALSE (Magufuli has shown a tendency of making appointments of people from the Lake Zone to critical ministries and economic sectors in the country. Corresponding to these appointments, he has also em-barked on improving infrastructures in Chato District, where he hails from, particularly the construction of the Chato international airport.)

Serikali ya mgombea aliyepo madarakani haikuguswa na skandali yoyote SI KWELI (Magufuli ameonyesha kasumba ya kutea watu wa Kanda ya Ziwa katika wizara nyeti na sekta za kiuchumi. Kadhalika, amejenga miundombinu kadhaa huko nyumbani kwake Chato, hususan uwanja wa ndege wa kimataifa wa Chato)


10. The incumbent admin suffers no major failure in foreign or mili-tary affairs FALSE (Under Magufuli, Tanzania’s foreign policy influ-ence has waned considerably. He has been criticised over his re-peated attacks on “imperialists” who is seen as waging war against foreign powers seeking to exploit the East African nation. Although he managed to calm his predecessor Jakaya Kikwete’s frosty rela-tions with Rwanda’s strongman Paul Kagame, Tanzania’s relations with is Kenya has been shaky, while it is alleged that patch  rela-tions with its Mozambique neighbour could hinder the fight against the Islamic State’s Central Africa Province (ISCAP) terror threat.)

Serikali iliyopo madarakani haijakumbwa na kufeli kwenye masuala ya nje au kijeshi SI KWELI (Chini ya Magufuli, siasa za nje za Tanzania zimepungua nguvu kwa kiasi kikubwa. Amekuwa akikosolewa kwenye mashambulizi yake ya mara kwa mara dhidi ya mabeberu huku akionekana kama anapambana kivita dhidi ya mataifa ya nje yanayotaka kuchuma kwenye taifa hilo la Afrika Mashariki. Japo alimudu kuboresha mahusiano na hasimu mkubwa wa mtangulizi wake Jakaya Kikwete, Rais wa Rwanda Paul Kagame, mahusiano ya Tanzania na Kenya yamelegalega, huku ikielezwa kuwa mahusiano yasiyoridhisha kati ya Tanzania na Msumbiji yanakwaza vita dhidi ya kikundi cha kigaidi cha ISIS Jimbo la Afrika ya Kati (ISCAP))


11. The incumbent administration achieves a major success in for-eign or military affairs FALSE

Serikali iliyopo madarakani imepata mafanikio makubwa kwenye masuala ya nje na ya kijeshi SI KWELI


12. The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero FALSE (Arguably, Magufuli has managed to offend virtually every-one, from opposition politicians to dark-skinned women, from preg-nant schoolgirls to victims of an earthquake)

Mgombea wa chama kilichopo madarakani ni mwenye haiba au anaonekana kuwa shujaa wa taifa SI KWELI (Yayumkinika kusema kuwa Magufuli amefanikiwa kumkera kila mtu, wapinzani hadi wanawake wenye ngozi nyeusi, mabinti wanafunzi wenye ujauzito hadi wahanga wa tetemeko la ardhi)


13. The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or national hero FALSE (In stark contrast to Magufuli, his main opponent Lissu is seen in eyes of many Tanzanians as charismatic and forgiving, largely because despite having been neglected by Magufuli’s gov-ernment following a failed attempt on his life in 2017, he has been campaigning on the peace and love agenda, with his campaigns ac-companied by the late Bob Marley’s One Love song.

Mgombea wa chama cha upinzani hana haiba na sio shujaa wa taifa SI KWELI (Kinyume na Magufuli, mpinzani wake mkuu Lissu anaonekana machoni mwa Watznania wengi kama mwenye haiba na mwenye moyo wa kusamehe, hasa kwa sababu licha ya kutelekezwa na serikali ya Magufuli kufuatia jaribio la mauaji dhidi yake mwaka 2017, amekuwa akihubiri amani na upendo, huku kampeni zake zikisindikizwa na wimbo wa One Love wa marehemu Bob Marley.


Kwa hiyo, kwa mujibu wa vi[engele 13 vya Professor Litchman, Magufuli atabwagwa na Lissu kwa sababu kuna SI KWELI zipo TISA (huku KWELI zikiwa NNE). Kumbuka ili mgombea aliyepo madarakani (kwa hapa ni Magufuli) atabiriwe kushinda, “SI KWELI” ZINAPASWA KUWA TANO AU PUNGUFU.

Marekani itafanya uchaguzi wake mkuu Novemba 4 mwaka huu, na Profesa Lichtman ametabiri kuwa Trump atabwagwa na Joe Biden, mgombea wa chama cha Democrats.

Hata hivyo alikuwa na shaka kuu mbili. Moja ni ukandamizwaji haki za wapiga kura (voter suppression) na pili ni hofu ya Russia kuhujumu tena uchaguzi huo kama ilivyofanya mwaka 2016.

Hofu hizo zote mbili zinawiana na mazingira ya Tanzania. Uhuni mkubwa uliofanywa dhidi ya wagombea lukuki wa vyama vya upinzani ni sawa na hicho kiitwacho “voter suppression.”

Kwa upande wa “tishio la Russia kwa uchaguzi wa Marekani,” kwa Tanzania tishio ni lilelile la kila uchaguzi ambapo wezi wazoefu wa kura wa Idara ya Usalama wa Taifa wanatarajiwa kufanya wizi mwingine katika uchaguzi huu mkuu.

Sina shaka hata chembe kuwa Idara ya Usalama wa Taifa itamhujumu Lissu ili kumwezesha Magufuli ashinde isivyo halali. Japo hakuna namna ya kuthibitisha hilo, mimi jasusi wako ni “ushahidi hai” kwa sababu nilishuhidia kwa macho yangu wizi wa kura ulivyofanyika siku kadhaa kabla ya chaguzi za mwaka 1995, 2000 na 2005 . Nahisi uhuni huo ulifanyika pia kwenye chaguzi za mwaka 2010 na 2015 lakini wakati huo nilikuwa nimeshatoka “Kitengo.”

Mikutano yote ya kampeni za Lissu ilijaza watu wengi zaidi kuliko mikutano ya Magufuli. 



Ilijaza watu wengi kwa sababu kinyume na kampeni za Magufuli ambazo hujaza wahudhuriaji kwa kuwabeba kwenye malori kama mizoga huku “waganga njaa” wa Bongoflava na Bongomuvi wakitumika kuvuta watu, mikutano ya Lissu ilijazwa na watu tu waliojitokeza kwa mapenzi yao kwa mwanasiasa huyo.Tukiamini kuwa wengi wa watu hawa watampigia kura Lissu, ni dhahiri kuwa ataibuka mshindi.

Kadhalika, yayumkinika kuwa Lissu anaweza kupata kura nyingi kutoka kwa makundi yote matatu makuu kwenye chaguzi za Tanzania – wapigakura ambao ni wanachama/wafuasi wa chama cha mgombea, wapigakura wa chama pinzani, na kundi kubwa zaidi la wapigakura wasio na chama..

Ni dhahiri wana-Chadema na huenda wanachama/wafuasi wengi wa upinzani watampa kura Lissu. Kadhalika, kuna uwezekano mkubwa wa kupata “kura za huruma” kutoka kwa wana-CCM ambao waliumizwa na msimamo wa Magufuli kuwadhibiti wasimjali Lissu aliposhambuliwa kwa risasi na kuwa matibabuni kwa takriban miaka mitatu. Kadhalika, Lissu anaweza kuvuna kira nyingi za wagombea wasio na vyama kwa sababu ni mgombea bora zaidi ya Magufuli, na pia kundi hilo muhimu laweza kumpatia Lissu “kura za huruma.”

Hata hivyo ni ngumu kweli kweli kwa Magufuli na Idara yake ya Usalama wa Taifa ambayo taarifa zinadai kuwa yeye sasa ndio anaiongoza kana kwamba ndiye Mkurugenzi Mkuu, wataruhusu Lissu awe mshindi. Na sio kwa kuhofia kushindwa tu bali uwezekano mkubwa wa Magufuli kuwa rais wa kwanza wa Tanzania kuburuzwa mahakamani kutokana na maovu lukuki yaliyojiri katika miaka mitano ya utawala wake.

Na hicho ndio kizingiti pekee kati ya Lissu na kuwa rais wa sita wa Jamuhuri ya Muungano wa Tanzania. Hata hivyo, Lissu si mwanasiasa wa kawaida. In fact, Lissu si mwanadamu wa kawaida, kwa sababu kwa mvua ya risasi walizomwagiwa na watesi wake, muda huu angekuwa marehemu. Lakini kwa miujiza ya Mungu sio tu alisalimika bali pia amefanikiwa kufanya kampeni kubwa kabisa ya kuwania urais, na endapo hatohujumiwa, atashinda uchaguzi huo.

Nihitimishe kwa kurudia tena ubashiri wangu kuwa LISSU ATASHINDA. Tatizo ni Magufuli na Kitengo “kuruhusu” Lissu awe rais ajaye.

Ndio maana ni muhimu kwa Lissu, Chadema, Watanzania wanaoitakia mema nchi yetu na jumuiya ya kimataifa kuhakikisha kuwa pindi Magufuli na wahuni wake wa Idara ya Usalama wa Taifa wakifanya tena wizi wa kura, KUSIWE NA KULALA MPAKA KIELEWEKE. Kwa sababu kama si hivyo, hawa majahili wataruhusiwa kuendelea kuiba kura hadi lini?

Nawatakia uchaguzi mkuu mwema, na hakikisha unampa kura yako TUNDU LISSU.

Mungu ibariki Tanzania


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