Kiintelijensia: Sababu Mbili Zilizopelekea Hamza Hassan Mohammed Kuua Polisi Watatu Na Mlinzi Mmoja Jijini Dar Juzi

Tukio: Mauaji ya askari polisi watatu na mlinzi mmoja wa kampuni binafsi ya ulinzi

Lini: 25 Agosti 2021

Mahali: Jirani na Ubalozi wa Ufaransa, Barabara ya Ali Hassan Mwinyi, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Ripoti za awali: Tamko la Mkuu wa Jeshi la Polisi, Simon Sirro 

#Update: As Death Toll Rises To 4 as Another Police Officer and Private Security Guard Confirmed Dead, Tanzania’s Police Chief Simon Sirro “Hints Incident Could Be Terrorist-Related.” https://t.co/amAZgsbKQx

— Jasusi (@Chahali) August 25, 2021

Uchambuzi wa kiintelijensia:  

Dhana za awali

#Mrejesho kuhusu tukio la jana ambapo mtu mmoja aliwaua polisi watatu na mlinzi mmoja karibu na uballozi wa Ufaransa jijini Dar, kabla ya yeye kuuawa. Kuna dhana kuu nne, ambazo ninaziita
👉Dhana ya kisasi
👉Dhana na mwendawazimu
👉Dhana na "gendaeka"
👉Dhana ya kuhalalisha https://t.co/6gS1nHUNFU

— Jasusi (@Chahali) August 26, 2021

Bila kujali mpangilio, "dhana ya kisasi" inahusu maelezo yaliyotawala zaidi kwenye mitandao ya kijamii kuwa mhusika aliporwa madini na polisi, na akaamua kulipa kisasi. Huenda inaeleza kwanini aliwalenga polisi tu na si raia wa kawaida https://t.co/yZQV7SpJcL

— Jasusi (@Chahali) August 26, 2021

"Dhana ya mwendawazimu" ni kwamba mhusika alikuwa na matatizo ya akili, na akaamua kufanya mauaji hayo. Hata hivyo, udhaifu wa dhana hii ni kwamba kama kweli alikuwa na matatizo ya akili, kwanini awalenge polisi tu na sio watu wengine? https://t.co/hnvwXcQXG1

— Jasusi (@Chahali) August 26, 2021

"Dhana ya gendaeka" (gendaeka = simba dume anaetembea peke yake) ni ya kitaalamu zaidi , na ina sapoti ya kauli ya IGP Sirro kuwa "tuna watu wetu (JWTZ) huko Msumbiji. Kama ni kweli, je alikuwa pekee? Pia kwanini Ubalozi wa Ufaransa? Kama mchambuzi kinda wa ugaidi, najikita hapa https://t.co/5B5PxTcdv2

— Jasusi (@Chahali) August 26, 2021

Mwisho ni "dhana ya kuhalalisha" inayohusiana na mashraka ya ugaidi dhidi ya m/kiti wa @ChademaTz Mh @freemanmbowetz kwamba suala zima limetengenezwa kuhalalisha mashtaka hayo. Kwa bahati mbaya, jeshi la polisi (@tanpol) lina rekodi mbaya ya kubambikia watu kesi/kuzua matukio https://t.co/vCRS0Quyw6

— Jasusi (@Chahali) August 26, 2021

Dhana zilizosalia

#Update: At least 2 of these theories, namely "The Vengeance theory"+"The Lone Wolf theory" could now be confirmed as FACTS. Hamza, as seen on video below was
👉 Radicalised
👉 Had personal grievances vs @tanpol
Both facts confirmed by top terrorism expert & ex-spy @Jasminechic00 https://t.co/vCRS0Quyw6 pic.twitter.com/LLZ9q5ngqK

— Jasusi (@Chahali) August 28, 2021

Hitimisho la awali (provisional conclusion): 

Hamza alikuwa "radicalised" na huenda lilikuwa suala la lini/wapi, na sio endapo (when/where not if) angefanya alichofanya. Lakinipia, Hamza alikuwa na kinyongo binafsi na polisi, na hiyo "radicalisation" ilirahisisha uamuzi wake wa "kuwaadhibu." 

Mwisho: 

Intelijensia sio sayansi timilifu (exact science) hasa katika mazingira haya ambapo taarifa mpya zinaendelea kumiminika. Kwahiyo, hitimisho hilo la awali lichukuliwe tu kwa mujibu wa kinachofahamika hadi muda huu. Hata hivyo, uchunguzi zaidi unaendelea.