Showing posts with label DEMOCRATS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label DEMOCRATS. Show all posts

3 Oct 2008

Mdahalo kati ya running mates wa vyama vya Democrat na Republican,Joe Biden na Sarah Palin,respectively,umemalizika hivi punde.Uchambuzi wa haraka haraka unaonyesha kuwa Palin amejitahidi kufanya vizuri kuliko ilivyotarajiwa.Matarajio kwamba Palin angefanya vibaya yalitokana na performances zake za hivi karibuni katika mahojiano (ya nadra) na wanahabari.Hofu zaidi ilikuwa ni kweli u-kilaza wake kwenye mambo mbalimbali.Kwa upande wa Biden,huku akitarajiwa kuutumia vizuri uzoefu wake wa muda mrefu kwenye ulingo wa siasa,hofu zaidi ilikuwa ni katika tabia yake ya "kusema ovyo" na kuwa gaffe-prone.Hata hivyo,uchambuzi wa awali unaonyesha kuwa Biden amefanya vizuri sana katika mdahalo huo,kiasi cha mchambuzi mmoja kudai kwamba it was his best ever performance.

Kwa upande mwingine,Palin ameonekana kama amethibitisha kwamba McCain hakufanya kosa kumchagua yeye kuwa running mate wake lakini ameshindwa kum-portray McCain kama mtu anayefaa zaidi  kuwa rais kuliko Barack Obama.Lakini Biden,pengine kwa kuhofia kuonekana kuwa ni sexist dhidi ya Palin,ametumia muda mwingi kuonyesha kwanini Obama anafaa zaidi kuwa rais kuliko McCain na wakati huohuo kuonyesha kuwa tiketi ya McCain-Palin ni mwendelezo mwingine wa miaka minane ya George W Bush.

Kiujumla,na kama ilivyotarajiwa na wengi,Biden ameonekana kuwa msindi katika mdahalo huo japo hilo haliwezi kukubalika among the Republicans.Pia matokeo ya awali ya kura kadhaa za maoni baada ya mjadala huo zinaonyesha ushindi mzuri kwa Biden hasa miongoni mwa undecided voters.


27 Sept 2008

Hatimaye mdahalo wa kwanza kati ya wagombea urais wa Marekani kwa vyama vya Democrat na Republican,Barack Obama na John McCain,respectively,umemalizika dakika chache zilizopita,mdahalo huo ulikuwa katika hatihati ya kufanyika kufuatia uamuzi wa McCain kusimamisha kampeni zake na kuomba mdahalo huo usogezwe mbele,kabla ya kubadili uamuzi huo (wa kushiriki mdahalo) mapema jana asubuhi.

Uchambuzi wa haraka haraka unaonyesha mambo kadhaa yaliyojitokeza kwenye mdahalo huo.Baadhi ya wachambuzi wanaona kwamba udhaifu wa Obama ulikuwa kwenye kuunga mkono hoja za McCain takriban mara saba (saying John is right on...) wakati McCain alikazania kuonyesha udhaifu wa Obama akitumia maneno kama "naivety","Obama doesnt seem to undestand",nk takriban mara nane.Kwa kuafikiana na McCain katika mitazamo au hoja zake,Obama anaweza kuonekana kama alikuwa defensive huku mpizani wake akiwa offensive,and that matters in politics.

Hata hivyo,kama ilivyotarajiwa,Obama ameonekana kufanya vizuri kwenye eneo ambalo anaaminika kuwa stronger kuliko McCain:uchumi.Kwa mwenendo wa mdahalo ulivyokuwa,yayumkinika kuhitimisha kuwa Obama alifanya vizuri kwenye nusu ya kwanza (takriban dakika 40 za mwanzo) ambapo hoja kuu ilikuwa uchumi.Kwa upande mwingine,McCain ameonekana kutawala zaidi kwenye nusu ya pili ya mdahalo huo ambayo iliangalia suala la sera za nje za Marekani.Kwa upande mwingine,pamoja na kutoonekana mshindi kwenye eneo hilo la sera za nje (ambalo McCain anachukuliwa kama mwenye uzoefu zaidi) Obama ameonekana kufanya vizuri zaidi kuliko ilivyotarajiwa kwa kusimamia anachokiamini na kutoyumbishwa na kauli za McCain kwamba mgombea huyo wa Republican ni mzoefu zaidi.Wapo wanaoona kwamba Obama ameweza kufanya kile alichotarajiwa kwenye "eneo lake la kujidai" yaani uchumi ilhali McCain ameshindwa kumfunika Obama kwa namna ilivyotarajiwa kwenye eneo la sera za nje.

Kadhalika Obama ameonekana kushindwa kuipigilia msumari ipasavyo hoja kwamba McCain amekuwa mshirika wa Bush katika kipindi cha miaka minane iliyopita.McCain nae kwa upande wake anaonekana ameshindwa kuitumia ipasavyo fursa ya kuonyesha yeye ni mzoefu zaidi katika eneo la sera za nje (kwa mantiki kwamba japo alifanya vizuri,hakufanya vizuri sana kama ilivyotarajiwa).Kwa kigezo cha hali mbaya ya uchumi nchini Marekani,Obama alipaswa kuwa mshindi lakini hilo halijalishi sana kwa vile mada ya mdahalo huo ilikuwa sera za nje,ambalo ni "eneo la kujidai" la McCain ambaye hata hivyo hakupata ushindi mnono kama ilivyotarajiwa.Kwa maana hiyo,kwa kushindwa kutumia vizuri "eneo lake la kujidai" (foreign policy) McCain anajiweka katika nafasi ngumu kwenye mijadala miwili ijayo ambayo inatarajiwa kuwa na mada ambazo ni strong points kwa Obama,kwa mfano uchumi na domestic affairs.

Japo sio hoja ya muhimu,yayumkinika kusema kwamba baadhi ya kauli za McCain kwa Obama zilikuwa kana kwa yuko patronizing.Ni muhimu kuonyesha kwamba wewe ni mjuzi zaidi katika eneo flani kuliko mpinzani wako lakini unapaswa kuwa makini kutoonekana "patronizing."Lakini pengine la muhimu zaidi,and this is my conclusion,Obama ameonekana kuzungumzia zaidi future ya Marekani na hivyo wakala wa mabadiliko (change) wakati McCain,kwa kusisitiza rekodi na uzoefu wake,ameonekana kuwa anapingana na msisitizo wake kwamba nae yuko for change.

BONYEZA HAPA kusikia mdahalo mzima.

3 Mar 2008

It's every Blackman's dream to see a fellow Black person in the White House.And for that matter,every Black person has is supposed to wish Barack Obama success in his attempt to rewrite American history by becoming the first non-White President of the US,the first Black President of the US of A.However,I just wish Obama does not win the Democratic Party nomination.Sounds weird,doesnt it?Well,simple reason is he would make too soft a target for Conservative smear campaign.And I believe that's why they pretend to admire his performances in the Dem's Primaries and Caucuses:they pray that Hillary Clinton loses to Obama,and that offers a Republican candidate an easy ride to the White House.I'm not suggesting that Obama is a weaker candidate than Hillary,he's shown over and over how strong,determined and likable he is.Conservatives are scared of competing AGAINST Hillary,who they paint as a divisive and controversial figure,because they know how strong and effective the Clinton's political machinery is.Why then is Hillary trailing in some polls?Well,it's not hard to see that she isn't only competing WITH Obama for a Dem's presidential spot but also AGAINST the Republicans and conservatives who knows what to expect should she emerge the winner in the Dem's race.The clips below might give you an idea as what to expect come a day when Obama is the Dem's Presidential candidate.If it's started this early while he isnt yet nominated to run for the presidency,imagine how dirty and vile swiftboat campaigns would be against Obama.

16 Jan 2008


Wiki iliyopita ilitawaliwa na surprises mbili:huko New Hampshire,Marekani,Hillary Clinton aliibuka mshindi kwenye primaries za chama cha Democrats,kinyume kabisa na utabiri wa awali wa waendesha kura za maoni na wachambuzi wa siasa za nchi hiyo.Na huko nyumbani,ugavana wa Daudi Balali ulitenguliwa.Wakati ili kuelewa nini kinaweza kuwa chanzo cha tofauti kati ya utabiri (kwamba Hillary angeshindwa) na matokeo (ambapo mwanamama huyo alishinda) kunahitaji upeo wa namna flani kuhusu siasa za Marekani na tabia ya chaguzi katika nchi hiyo (kwa mfano phenomenon kama Bradley effect),utenguzi wa ugavana wa Balali haukuhitaji hata short course ya uchambuzi wa siasa kubaini kwamba he had to go,pengine mapema zaidi ya wiki iliyopita.

Makala yangu ndani ya gazeti la Raia Mwema wiki hii inazungumzia surprises hizo mbili.Inakwenda mbali zaidi kwa kuhoji iwapo ufisadi uliopelekea Balali kupoteza unga wake ulihusisha mtu mmoja pekee.Kadhalika,inahitimisha kwamba kufanikiwa kwa ufisadi huo ni failure kwa TAKUKURU na jeshi la Polisi,taasisi ambazo kimsingi zilipaswa kuchukua hatua mapema kuzuia na/au kupunguza uhalifu huo.

Pamoja na makala nyingine zilizokwenda shule ndani ya Raia Mwema,bingirika na makala hiyo hapa.

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