Showing posts with label JOHN MCCAIN. Show all posts
Showing posts with label JOHN MCCAIN. Show all posts

4 Nov 2008

McCain-Obama 11-3-08 FINAL

2 Nov 2008

Comedians flani wamemuingiza mkenge Gavana Sarah Palin kumuaminisha kuwa anaongea na Rais wa Ufaransa Nicholas Sarkozy.Sikiliza kichekesho hicho kwa ku-click link ifuatayo hapa chini:

Talking of Gov Palin,kituko kingine ni kwamba katika mkutano wake wa kampeni huko Polk City,Florida jina la mgombea mwenza wake,John McCain,was surprisingly missing kama inavyoonekana katika picha ifuatayo hapo chini.Au ndio ameshaanza kampeni za 2012?

30 Oct 2008


25 Oct 2008

23 Oct 2008

BATAVIA, Ohio ( -- Conventional polls this year are fraught with doubts -- from the "Bradley Effect" to the elusive cellphone-only households. But one poll based in the all-important swing state of Ohio has never failed since its inception in 1984, and it has Barack Obama with an almost insurmountable lead over John McCain. 

The Busken Cookie Poll, in which the chain of Cincinnati-area retail bakeries sells cookies bearing cartoon images of each candidate, as of Thursday morning had Mr. Obama ahead 6,477 to 3,090 -- a 68% to 32% margin. Daily updates can be found at 

Unscientific? Perhaps. But Brian Busken, VP-marketing of the family business, said that since the poll's inception in 1984, it has accurately predicted the winner of the presidential election every four years and never been further than 4 percentage points from the final popular vote tally nationwide. (Note: While the website shows a smiling Obama cookie and a frowning McCain cookie, the cookies sold in stores have both smiling.) 

"We've never seen a spread like this before in the numbers," Mr. Busken said. "I don't know if there's going to be a crumbslide or not. ... We may still predict the winner, but probably by way too many cookies." 

Already there are allegations of irregularities. Commenters on a story at the website of the Cincinnati Business Courier allege some bookstores have Obama cookies up front, McCain cookies in the back, and that Remke stores in Northern Kentucky had run out of the McCain cookies. 

Mr. Busken said wholesale sales such as those referenced in the comments don't count. Nor does a recent bulk purchase of 400 McCain cookies by Rob Portman, former Republican congressman and White House budget director. If Acorn buys cookies online for the Dallas Cowboys and their cheerleaders, those don't count either. Only cookies sold in the 11 Ohio stores tracked by the poll count. 

Busken milks the poll, of course, for all the publicity it can get, and has incorporated it into outdoor ads from the Creative Department, Cincinnati. The chain will advertise cookie-poll results on the Norton Digital Network in the area during the four days leading up to the election.

22 Oct 2008

Barack Obama akifanikiwa kushinda urais hapo Novemba 4 atakuwa ameweka historia kwa kuwa Mweusi wa kwanza kuwa rais wa Marekani.Lakini mafanikio ya Obama yanawasumbua wachambuzi wa siasa (hususan za tabia za uchaguzi wa Marekani).Hayawasumbui kwa vile Obama na wao ni wabaguzi.La hasha,bali ni namna hisia kwamba Bradley effect ingemwangusha zinavyoelekea kuwa wrong.

Nilishakiri katika post yangu moja huko nyuma kwamba awali nilitamani Hillary Clinton apitishwe kuwa mgombea wa Democrats.Sababu yangu kuu ilikuwa ni katika hofu kwamba Obama angeshinda nomination basi Weupe wangeungana bila kujali itikadi zao kuhakikisha mtu mweusi haingii White House.Baada ya kumbwaga Hillary,nililazimika kukubaliana na busara za stadi za siasa kwamba lolote linawezekana katika fani hiyo.

Tukirejea kwenye kinachowasumbua wachambuzi wa siasa ni namna Bradley effect inavyoelekea kushindwa kuwa na impact kwa Obama,hasa kipindi hiki ambacho sio tu anapambana na Mweupe bali Mweupe kutoka chama cha weupe wahafidhina (Republican).Kuna wanaoamini kwamba Bradley effect ni uzushi (myth) wa aina flani.I dont.Lakini kama sio myth basi kwanini Obama anazidi kupaa kwenye opinion polls?

Binafsi nadhani hii ni REVERSE BRADLEY EFFECT.Yaani,wapiga kura Weusi hawaonyeshi dhamira zao hadharani (kwa wanaochukua opinion polls) kwamba watamsapoti Mweusi mwenzao.Kwa lugha nyingine,wanashusha matarajio ya support ya Weusi kwa Mweusi mwenzao.Lakini kwa vile Weusi ni wachache Marekani,na hata kama wangefanya nacho-hypothesize hapo juu bado wasingeweza kuifanya hali kuwa kama ilivyo sasa,nachoamini zaidi ni tabia "mpya" ya Weupe kudai hadharani kuwa hawajaamua wampigie kura nani (undecided) au Weupe (hasa wa Republicans) kuongopa hadharani kwamba wanamsapoti McCain ilhali dhamira na sapoti yao ni kwa Obama.

Weusi wa Obama ni issue kwenye uchaguzi huu,nami ni muumini wa hoja kwamba kama Obama angekuwa Mweupe basi muda huu tungeshafuta uwezekano wa McCain kuwa rais hapo Novemba.Kwanini nasema hivyo?Wamarekani wengi wamechoshwa na Republicans na uhafidhina kwa ujumla.Bush ameendelea kuwa one of the most unpopular US presidents ever,na Democrats wanaonekana kama ndio watakaoleta ufumbuzi wa matatizo ya Marekani.Sababu zote hizo ni tosha kumfanya mgombea anayekubalika wa Democrats kuwa mbali sana kwenye kura za maoni.Kwanini Obama anamwacha McCain kwa wastani wa kura 10 tu?Jibu la haraka ni Weusi wake.

Whether Bredley effect ni hype au ndio ujio wa Reverse Bredley effect itajulikana baada ya exit polls hapo Novemba 4.However,no matter what happens to Obama,alipofika ni historia tosha,japo itanoga zaidi akishinda kiti hicho.

16 Oct 2008

"Hata ingekuwa Ronald Reagan katika nafasi ya John McCain dhidi ya Obama,ni dhahiri ingekuwa hadithi ileile...McCain ameshindwa."Hii ni tafsiri isiyo rasmi ya kauli ya Charles Krauthammer kwa Brit Hume,baada ya mdahalo wa mwisho kati ya McCain na Barack Obama.Bill Kristol nae ametoa more or less same conclusion.

Kwa mujibu wa kura za maoni za watazamaji wa mjadala huo kwa CNN na CBS (na Frank Luntz's focus group ya undecided voters,Obama ameshinda mjadala huo.Pia wachambuzi wa mdahalo huo wameonekana kukubaliana kuhusu mwonekano wa wagombea hao wakati wa mjadala,ambapo mara kadhaa Obama alikuwa akitabasamu na kucheka huku akiwa more relaxed wakati takriban muda wote McCain alikuwa serious na kama mtu anayekimbizana na muda.

Ni vigumu kufanya utabiri kwenye siasa,ni vigumu zaidi kufanya utabiri kwenye uchaguzi,na ni vigumu mno kufanya utabiri wa uhakika takriban siku 19 kabla ya uchaguzi mkuu wa Marekani.Hata hivyo,kama hakuna Bradley effect katika opinion polls zinazoonyesha Obama akiongoza katika karibu kila poll,na kama hakutatokea tukio kubwa (kwa mfano,God forbid,shambulizi la kigaidi kama la September 11,au kukamatwa kwa Osama bin Laden) Obama anasimama katika nafasi nzuri ya kuwa rais wa kwanza mweusi wa Marekani hapo November 4.

13 Oct 2008

If John McCain is as serious as he says about running a "respectful" campaign against an opponent he considers "a decent person," word hasn't yet trickled down to his newly opened storefront field office in Gainesville, Virginia.

No Democratic presidential candidate has carried Virginia since 1964, and most election years both campaigns pretty much ignore the state. This time, however, McCain is running behind Barack Obama in statewide polls, thanks in large part to the head start he got on the ground there. "We haven't seen a race like this in Virginia — ever," said state GOP Chairman Jeffrey M. Frederick. "The last time was 40 years ago, and they didn't run races like this."

Indeed, Frederick, a 33-year-old state legislator, hadn't even been born yet. But earlier this year Frederick unseated a moderate 71-year-old former lieutenant governor (who also happens to be Jenna Bush's father-in-law) to become head of the Virginia GOP, promising "bold new leadership" for a state party recently on the decline.

The McCain campaign invited me to visit Frederick and the Gainesville operation on Saturday morning, to get a first-hand glimpse of its ground game in Prince William County, Virginia, a fast-growing area about 30 miles from Washington, D.C.

With so much at stake, and time running short, Frederick did not feel he had the luxury of subtlety. He climbed atop a folding chair to give 30 campaign volunteers who were about to go canvassing door to door their talking points — for instance, the connection between Barack Obama and Osama bin Laden: "Both have friends that bombed the Pentagon," he said. "That is scary." It is also not exactly true — though that distorted reference to Obama's controversial association with William Ayers, a former 60s radical, was enough to get the volunteers stoked. "And he won't salute the flag," one woman added, repeating another myth about Obama. She was quickly topped by a man who called out, "We don't even know where Senator Obama was really born." Actually, we do; it's Hawaii.

Ground operations — the doughnut-fueled armies of volunteers who knock on doors and man the phone banks — are the trench warfare of political campaigns. These are the people charged with finding and persuading voters who might support their candidate, and then making sure they actually show up at the polls. A good ground operation might mean just an additional percentage point or two on Election Day, but in a close race, that margin could easily be the difference between winning and losing. Obama campaign manager David Plouffe calls his ground operation the "field goal unit," and it was one of the big reasons the Illinois Senator bested Hillary Clinton in the primaries. But Obama's team has yet to be tested against a Republican operation that was built and perfected over decades, culminating in the astonishing ground game that put George W. Bush over the top in 2004.

The Republicans wouldn't allow me to tag along with their volunteers, so I drove 30 minutes across the county to the Obama field office. Where the Gainesville GOP office that opened last week was still furnished only with a few folding tables and chairs (workers were hanging the McCain/Palin sign out front as I drove away), Obama's in Woodbridge has been up and running since July, and has the dingy, cluttered, lived-in feel that every campaign office eventually acquires. The campaign's "Votebuilder" software — with house-by-house data on every registered voter in the area — dominated a bank of computer screens, and the walls were covered with cartoons, volunteer signatures and lists of "star phonebankers." Young volunteers bustled in and out with stacks of clipboards and canvassing materials to hand to the volunteers who were showing up by the carful in the parking lot. Word had gotten out that a new load of yard signs had arrived, so they were handing those out to Obama supporters who had shown up asking for them.

The campaign handed me a packet of addresses and sent me out to meet Brian Varrieur. He's a 34-year-old lawyer who lives in Washington, D.C. and looks barely old enough to vote himself. This was the fifth weekend he returned to his parents' home in the neighborhood where he grew up to knock on doors for Obama. Brian is soft-spoken — not exactly a natural personality for this kind of work; back when his elementary school would hold candy-sale drives, "I was one of those kids who would get their next-door neighbor and their mom to buy some, and that was it," he told me. "But this [presidential election] really matters to me."

It must. Saturdays in the suburbs aren't the ideal time to find people at home. I followed Brian to 13 houses on his list, and no one answered at 10 of them. (He left an Obama brochure in the door of each.) At one, the woman at the door told him she was "leaning" toward McCain, though I thought she seemed more settled in her decision than that. At another, a teen-aged girl told him: "My dad is a super-strong Republican. You're probably at the wrong house." (He duly marked that down, to save future canvassers the trouble.) Still, the yard signs we saw suggested that this was in fact a neighborhood divided. We discovered that was true when we approached another house on the list and found a father and son raking the front yard. "I'm voting for McCain," the father told us. But his 19-year-old son, a college student home for the weekend, told us he plans to send in his absentee ballot for Obama. His reason? "Palin's a retard," he said. As for the lady of the house? McCain, the man said. "She has to live here. The kids I can kick out."


12 Oct 2008

IF you think way back to the start of this marathon campaign, back when it seemed preposterous that any black man could be a serious presidential contender, then you remember the biggest fear about Barack Obama: a crazy person might take a shot at him.

Some voters told reporters that they didn’t want Obama to run, let alone win, should his very presence unleash the demons who have stalked America from Lincoln to King. After consultation with Congress, Michael Chertoff, the homeland security secretary, gave Obama a Secret Service detail earlier than any presidential candidate in our history — in May 2007, some eight months before the first Democratic primaries.

“I’ve got the best protection in the world, so stop worrying,” Obama reassured his supporters. Eventually the country got conditioned to his appearing in large arenas without incident (though I confess that the first loud burst of fireworks at the end of his convention stadium speech gave me a start). In America, nothing does succeed like success. The fear receded.

Until now. At McCain-Palin rallies, the raucous and insistent cries of “Treason!” and “Terrorist!” and “Kill him!” and “Off with his head!” as well as the uninhibited slinging of racial epithets, are actually something new in a campaign that has seen almost every conceivable twist. They are alarms. Doing nothing is not an option.

All’s fair in politics. John McCain and Sarah Palin have every right to bring up William Ayers, even if his connection to Obama is minor, even if Ayers’s Weather Underground history dates back to Obama’s childhood, even if establishment Republicans and Democrats alike have collaborated with the present-day Ayers in educational reform. But it’s not just the old Joe McCarthyesque guilt-by-association game, however spurious, that’s going on here. Don’t for an instant believe the many mindlessly “even-handed” journalists who keep saying that the McCain campaign’s use of Ayers is the moral or political equivalent of the Obama campaign’s hammering on Charles Keating.

What makes them different, and what has pumped up the Weimar-like rage at McCain-Palin rallies, is the violent escalation in rhetoric, especially (though not exclusively) by Palin. Obama “launched his political career in the living room of a domestic terrorist.” He is “palling around with terrorists” (note the plural noun). Obama is “not a man who sees America the way you and I see America.” Wielding a wildly out-of-context Obama quote, Palin slurs him as an enemy of American troops.

By the time McCain asks the crowd “Who is the real Barack Obama?” it’s no surprise thatsomeone cries out “Terrorist!” The rhetorical conflation of Obama with terrorism is complete. It is stoked further by the repeated invocation of Obama’s middle name by surrogates introducing McCain and Palin at these rallies. This sleight of hand at once synchronizes with the poisonous Obama-is-a-Muslim e-mail blasts and shifts the brand of terrorism from Ayers’s Vietnam-era variety to the radical Islamic threats of today.

That’s a far cry from simply accusing Obama of being a guilty-by-association radical leftist. Obama is being branded as a potential killer and an accessory to past attempts at murder. “Barack Obama’s friend tried to kill my family” was how a McCain press releaselast week packaged the remembrance of a Weather Underground incident from 1970 — when Obama was 8.

We all know what punishment fits the crime of murder, or even potential murder, if the security of post-9/11 America is at stake. We all know how self-appointed “patriotic” martyrs always justify taking the law into their own hands.

Obama can hardly be held accountable for Ayers’s behavior 40 years ago, but at least McCain and Palin can try to take some responsibility for the behavior of their own supporters in 2008. What’s troubling here is not only the candidates’ loose inflammatory talk but also their refusal to step in promptly and strongly when someone responds to it with bloodthirsty threats in a crowded arena. Joe Biden had it exactly right when heexpressed concern last week that “a leading American politician who might be vice president of the United States would not just stop midsentence and turn and condemn that.” To stay silent is to pour gas on the fires.

It wasn’t always thus with McCain. In February he loudly disassociated himself from a speaker who brayed “Barack Hussein Obama” when introducing him at a rally in Ohio. Now McCain either backpedals with tardy, pro forma expressions of respect for his opponent or lets second-tier campaign underlings release boilerplate disavowals after ugly incidents like the chilling Jim Crow-era flashback last week when a Florida sheriff ranted about “Barack Hussein Obama” at a Palin rally while in full uniform.

From the start, there have always been two separate but equal questions about race in this election. Is there still enough racism in America to prevent a black man from being elected president no matter what? And, will Republicans play the race card? The jury is out on the first question until Nov. 4. But we now have the unambiguous answer to the second: Yes.

McCain, who is no racist, turned to this desperate strategy only as Obama started to pull ahead. The tone was set at the Republican convention, with Rudy Giuliani’s mocking dismissal of Obama as an “only in America” affirmative-action baby. We also learned then that the McCain campaign had recruited as a Palin handler none other than Tucker Eskew, the South Carolina consultant who had worked for George W. Bush in the notorious 2000 G.O.P. primary battle where the McCains and their adopted Bangladeshi daughter were slimed by vicious racist rumors.

No less disconcerting was a still-unexplained passage of Palin’s convention speech: Her use of an unattributed quote praising small-town America (as opposed to, say, Chicago and its community organizers) from Westbrook Pegler, the mid-century Hearst columnistfamous for his anti-Semitism, racism and violent rhetorical excess. After an assassin tried to kill F.D.R. at a Florida rally and murdered Chicago’s mayor instead in 1933, Pegler wrote that it was “regrettable that Giuseppe Zangara shot the wrong man.” In the ’60s, Pegler had a wish for Bobby Kennedy: “Some white patriot of the Southern tier will spatter his spoonful of brains in public premises before the snow falls.”

This is the writer who found his way into a speech by a potential vice president at a national political convention. It’s astonishing there’s been no demand for a public accounting from the McCain campaign. Imagine if Obama had quoted a Black Panther or Louis Farrakhan — or William Ayers — in Denver.

The operatives who would have Palin quote Pegler have been at it ever since. A key indicator came two weeks after the convention, when the McCain campaign ran its first ad tying Obama to the mortgage giant Fannie Mae. Rather than make its case by using a legitimate link between Fannie and Obama (or other Democratic leaders), the McCain forces chose a former Fannie executive who had no real tie to Obama or his campaign but did have a black face that could dominate the ad’s visuals.

There are no black faces high in the McCain hierarchy to object to these tactics. There hasn’t been a single black Republican governor, senator or House member in six years. This is a campaign where Palin can repeatedly declare that Alaska is “a microcosm of America” without anyone even wondering how that might be so for a state whose tiny black and Hispanic populations are each roughly one-third the national average. There are indeed so few people of color at McCain events that a black senior writer from The Tallahassee Democrat was mistakenly ejected by the Secret Service from a campaign rally in Panama City in August, even though he was standing with other reporters and showed his credentials. His only apparent infraction was to look glaringly out of place.

Could the old racial politics still be determinative? I’ve long been skeptical of the incessant press prognostications (and liberal panic) that this election will be decided by racist white men in the Rust Belt. Now even the dimmest bloviators have figured out that Americans are riveted by the color green, not black — as in money, not energy. Voters are looking for a leader who might help rescue them, not a reckless gambler whose lurching responses to the economic meltdown (a campaign “suspension,” a mortgage-buyout stunt that changes daily) are as unhinged as his wanderings around the debate stage.

To see how fast the tide is moving, just look at North Carolina. On July 4 this year — the day that the godfather of modern G.O.P. racial politics, Jesse Helms, died — The Charlotte Observer reported that strategists of both parties agreed Obama’s chances to win the state fell “between slim and none.” Today, as Charlotte reels from the implosion of Wachovia, the McCain-Obama race is a dead heat in North Carolina and Helms’s Republican successor in the Senate, Elizabeth Dole, is looking like a goner.

But we’re not at Election Day yet, and if voters are to have their final say, both America and Obama have to get there safely. The McCain campaign has crossed the line between tough negative campaigning and inciting vigilantism, and each day the mob howls louder. The onus is on the man who says he puts his country first to call off the dogs, pit bulls and otherwise.

11 Oct 2008

Siasa ni mchezo mchafu,hilo halina ubishi.Wapo wanaotumia uzushi,udini,ubabaishaji,haiba na hata ndumba  kufikia malengo yao ya kisiasa.Pamoja na uchafu katika mchezo uitwao siasa,kuna wanasiasa wastaarabu wenye kutumia kanuni na taratibu kufikia malengo yao.Hadi hivi karibuni,John McCain alikuwa mmoja wao.Lakini baada ya kuona kura zinamwendea kombo akaamua kuwasikiliza wapambe wake wanaodhani kuwa njia ya mkato ya kumkabili Barack Obama ni ku-assassinate character yake:muite terrorist,tumia jina lake la kati Hussein,fananisha Obama na Osama,na upuuzi mwingine kama huo.

Wakati McCain anatafakari kama mkakati wa aina hiyo ungeweza kuleta mabadiliko,Sarah Palin akaingia kichwa kichwa na kumhusisha Obama na watu kama Ayers na Rev Wright.Wafuasi wakawa motivated,na wengine wakafikia hatua ya kumuita Obama terrorist.Kwa Palin (na bila shaka McCain),ilionekana kuwa picha inaanza kukamilika.Lakini vitendo hivyo vya kishenzi vikawafanya baadhi ya watu wanaomheshimu McCain kuhoji iwapo amefilisika kisiasa kiasi hicho.Na inaelekea ujumbe umefika kwake kama inavyoonekana kwenye clip ya hapo chini.

Hata hivyo,McCain anakabiliwa na mtihani mgumu pengine zaidi ya kushinda uchaguzi hapo Novemba 4.Kwa upande mmoja,ana-risk kupoteza sapoti ya wale wanaopenda kuona Obama akishambuliwa kwa nguvu zote.Miongoni mwa hao ni wasaidizi wa karibu wa McCain ambapo wamekuwa wakitoa matangazo ya kumchafua Obama.Kwahiyo,akiacha kumuandama Obama itamaanisha kujitenga na wanaomsapoti,na dalili ya hilo ni hapo jana ambapo baadhi ya waliohudhuria mkutano wake waliishia kumzomea (angalia clip hapo chini).Kwa upande mwingine,undecided voters na independents wanataka kusikia McCain atawafanyia nini iwapo atakuwa rais,au kwa lugha nyingine kwanini wampe kura zao na si Obama.Matusi na maneno mengine machafu yatalikimbiza kundi hili ambalo analihitaji mmno ili aweze kushinda uchaguzi huo.

Japo McCain anaweza kuwa na hoja za msingi kuhoji kuhusu background ya Obama,swali linabaki why now kama sio dalili za desperation na panic ya kuelekea kushindwa uchaguzi?Kibaya zaidi,kinachowatatiza wapiga kura wa Marekani ni namna rais ajaye atakavyoweza kurekebisha hali mbaya ya uchumi wa taifa hilo.Kuhoji undani wa Obama muda huu (hasa wakati Obama ana-concentrate katika kutafuta ufumbuzi wa matatizo ya uchumi) ni sawa na kuyapuuza matatizo yanayowakabili wapiga kura,na it goes without saying how they would pay him back come November 4.

8 Oct 2008

Inapotokea pundits wa Fox News,Mort Condracke,Bill Kristal,Nina Easton na Fred Barnes, wanakubaliana kitu kimoja "kummaliza" John McCain basi hapo huhitaji kwenda mbali kuhitimisha kwamba mgombea huyo kachemsha.And that's exactly what happened mara baada ya mdahalo kati ya Obama na McCain ambao ulichukua format ya town hall meeting.Kadhalika,mtizamo wa undecided voters kwa mujibu wa Frank Luntz ni kwamba Obama ameshinda tena mdahalo huo ambao ni wa pili kati ya midahalo mitatu iliyokubaliwa na wagombea hao.

Kwa mujibu wa wachambuzi wa uchaguzi huo,McCain alihitaji a kcock-out punch,yaani ilikuwa ni lazima afanye vizuri katika mdahalo huo ili kujiweka vizuri katika jitihada zake za kushinda uchaguzi hapo Novemba 4.Kura nyingi za maoni zinaonyesha mgombea huyo wa Republican akiwa nyuma ya Obama,na ilitarajiwa kwamba kufanya kwake vizuri katika mdahalo huo kungemsaidia kupunguza gap hiyo.Kilichokuwa kinawapa matumaini wafuasi wa McCain ni uzoefu wake katika town hall meetings.Hata hivyo,uzoefu huo unaonekana kutomsaidia mgombea huyo,na pengine fursa yake pekee ni aidha kitoke kitu kisichotarajiwa (hata kama hakihusiani na uchaguzi huo) ambacho kitabadili kabisa landscape ya uchaguzi huo au afanye vizuri kupita kiasi katika mdahalo wa mwisho (na wakati huohuo Obama afanye vibaya).

Moja ya kauli ambazo zinaweza kumgharimu McCain ni ile ya kumuita Obama "that one",na kinyume na mdahalo uliopita ambapo wagombea hao walishikana mikono kabla na baada,safari hii hilo halikutokea baada ya shughuli hiyo pevu ambapo McCain alikuwa wa kwanza kuondoka kitini (pengine kukwepa handshake na Obama).

Kwa uchambuzi na habari zaidi bofya HAPA na HAPA na HAPA

3 Oct 2008

Mdahalo kati ya running mates wa vyama vya Democrat na Republican,Joe Biden na Sarah Palin,respectively,umemalizika hivi punde.Uchambuzi wa haraka haraka unaonyesha kuwa Palin amejitahidi kufanya vizuri kuliko ilivyotarajiwa.Matarajio kwamba Palin angefanya vibaya yalitokana na performances zake za hivi karibuni katika mahojiano (ya nadra) na wanahabari.Hofu zaidi ilikuwa ni kweli u-kilaza wake kwenye mambo mbalimbali.Kwa upande wa Biden,huku akitarajiwa kuutumia vizuri uzoefu wake wa muda mrefu kwenye ulingo wa siasa,hofu zaidi ilikuwa ni katika tabia yake ya "kusema ovyo" na kuwa gaffe-prone.Hata hivyo,uchambuzi wa awali unaonyesha kuwa Biden amefanya vizuri sana katika mdahalo huo,kiasi cha mchambuzi mmoja kudai kwamba it was his best ever performance.

Kwa upande mwingine,Palin ameonekana kama amethibitisha kwamba McCain hakufanya kosa kumchagua yeye kuwa running mate wake lakini ameshindwa kum-portray McCain kama mtu anayefaa zaidi  kuwa rais kuliko Barack Obama.Lakini Biden,pengine kwa kuhofia kuonekana kuwa ni sexist dhidi ya Palin,ametumia muda mwingi kuonyesha kwanini Obama anafaa zaidi kuwa rais kuliko McCain na wakati huohuo kuonyesha kuwa tiketi ya McCain-Palin ni mwendelezo mwingine wa miaka minane ya George W Bush.

Kiujumla,na kama ilivyotarajiwa na wengi,Biden ameonekana kuwa msindi katika mdahalo huo japo hilo haliwezi kukubalika among the Republicans.Pia matokeo ya awali ya kura kadhaa za maoni baada ya mjadala huo zinaonyesha ushindi mzuri kwa Biden hasa miongoni mwa undecided voters.

27 Sept 2008

Hatimaye mdahalo wa kwanza kati ya wagombea urais wa Marekani kwa vyama vya Democrat na Republican,Barack Obama na John McCain,respectively,umemalizika dakika chache zilizopita,mdahalo huo ulikuwa katika hatihati ya kufanyika kufuatia uamuzi wa McCain kusimamisha kampeni zake na kuomba mdahalo huo usogezwe mbele,kabla ya kubadili uamuzi huo (wa kushiriki mdahalo) mapema jana asubuhi.

Uchambuzi wa haraka haraka unaonyesha mambo kadhaa yaliyojitokeza kwenye mdahalo huo.Baadhi ya wachambuzi wanaona kwamba udhaifu wa Obama ulikuwa kwenye kuunga mkono hoja za McCain takriban mara saba (saying John is right on...) wakati McCain alikazania kuonyesha udhaifu wa Obama akitumia maneno kama "naivety","Obama doesnt seem to undestand",nk takriban mara nane.Kwa kuafikiana na McCain katika mitazamo au hoja zake,Obama anaweza kuonekana kama alikuwa defensive huku mpizani wake akiwa offensive,and that matters in politics.

Hata hivyo,kama ilivyotarajiwa,Obama ameonekana kufanya vizuri kwenye eneo ambalo anaaminika kuwa stronger kuliko McCain:uchumi.Kwa mwenendo wa mdahalo ulivyokuwa,yayumkinika kuhitimisha kuwa Obama alifanya vizuri kwenye nusu ya kwanza (takriban dakika 40 za mwanzo) ambapo hoja kuu ilikuwa uchumi.Kwa upande mwingine,McCain ameonekana kutawala zaidi kwenye nusu ya pili ya mdahalo huo ambayo iliangalia suala la sera za nje za Marekani.Kwa upande mwingine,pamoja na kutoonekana mshindi kwenye eneo hilo la sera za nje (ambalo McCain anachukuliwa kama mwenye uzoefu zaidi) Obama ameonekana kufanya vizuri zaidi kuliko ilivyotarajiwa kwa kusimamia anachokiamini na kutoyumbishwa na kauli za McCain kwamba mgombea huyo wa Republican ni mzoefu zaidi.Wapo wanaoona kwamba Obama ameweza kufanya kile alichotarajiwa kwenye "eneo lake la kujidai" yaani uchumi ilhali McCain ameshindwa kumfunika Obama kwa namna ilivyotarajiwa kwenye eneo la sera za nje.

Kadhalika Obama ameonekana kushindwa kuipigilia msumari ipasavyo hoja kwamba McCain amekuwa mshirika wa Bush katika kipindi cha miaka minane iliyopita.McCain nae kwa upande wake anaonekana ameshindwa kuitumia ipasavyo fursa ya kuonyesha yeye ni mzoefu zaidi katika eneo la sera za nje (kwa mantiki kwamba japo alifanya vizuri,hakufanya vizuri sana kama ilivyotarajiwa).Kwa kigezo cha hali mbaya ya uchumi nchini Marekani,Obama alipaswa kuwa mshindi lakini hilo halijalishi sana kwa vile mada ya mdahalo huo ilikuwa sera za nje,ambalo ni "eneo la kujidai" la McCain ambaye hata hivyo hakupata ushindi mnono kama ilivyotarajiwa.Kwa maana hiyo,kwa kushindwa kutumia vizuri "eneo lake la kujidai" (foreign policy) McCain anajiweka katika nafasi ngumu kwenye mijadala miwili ijayo ambayo inatarajiwa kuwa na mada ambazo ni strong points kwa Obama,kwa mfano uchumi na domestic affairs.

Japo sio hoja ya muhimu,yayumkinika kusema kwamba baadhi ya kauli za McCain kwa Obama zilikuwa kana kwa yuko patronizing.Ni muhimu kuonyesha kwamba wewe ni mjuzi zaidi katika eneo flani kuliko mpinzani wako lakini unapaswa kuwa makini kutoonekana "patronizing."Lakini pengine la muhimu zaidi,and this is my conclusion,Obama ameonekana kuzungumzia zaidi future ya Marekani na hivyo wakala wa mabadiliko (change) wakati McCain,kwa kusisitiza rekodi na uzoefu wake,ameonekana kuwa anapingana na msisitizo wake kwamba nae yuko for change.

BONYEZA HAPA kusikia mdahalo mzima.

24 Sept 2008

23 Sept 2008

Kwa lugha za Mlimani (UDSM) kilaza ni mtu ambaye shule haipandi.Kwake siku ya seminar presentation ni kama kutoa ushahidi kwenye kesi mahakamani ambayo inaweza kumpelekea kunyongwa.Ratiba ya mtihani ikitoka basi kwake inakuwa kama amepewa ratiba ya kifo chake.Vilaza huwa makini sana katika kuchagua marafiki chuoni hapo,hujitahidi kujiweka karibu na vipanga (kinyume cha vilaza).Kipanga halisi anaweza kuonekana kwenye lectures kwa msimu,muda mwingi anautumia kwa shughuli zake binafsi,na si ajabu kumkuta anakamata kinywaji pale Duso wakati watu wanahangaika library.Ni nadra kuwaona vipanga halisi kwenye discussion groups.Lakini come the UE,vipanga wanaendelea kutesa.Well,hiyo ni Mlimani niliyoiacha 1999.Sijui mambo yakoje kwa sasa.

Baadhi ya wachambuzi wa mambo wanamtuhumu Sarah Palin,mgombea mwenza wa John McCain, kuwa huenda ni kilaza na ndio maana amekuwa akikwepa mahojiano ya maana na vyombo vya habari.Zaidi SOMA HAPA

19 Sept 2008

Ni jambo lililo wazi kwamba miongoni mwa wasiotaka kumuona Obama akiingia White House ni pamoja na wale wanaompinga sio kwa sera au uwezo wake bali asili yake (weusi wake).Katika hili kuna weupe wengi na weusi wachache,lakini wote ni wabaguzi wa rangi.Kwa weupe hao,kuongozwa na mtu mweusi ni jambo lisilofikirika kwao.Akilini mwao,mtu mweusi hajafikia hatua ya kuongoza taifa hilo.Kwa weusi wachache,Obama si mwenzao.Ni mtu wa tabaka tofauti na wao.Ukaribu wake na weupe unamtenga na wao.Makundi yote haya mawili yanaongozwa zaidi na hisia kuliko akili.Ni wazembe flani.Hata hivyo,hawa si wa kupuuzwa japo ni vigumu kuwabadili misimamo yao.Kuhusu namna suala la race linavyoweza kumuathiri Obama,SOMA MAKALA HII.Soma na HII kuhusu McCain anavyochomekea ishu za race.

According to the latest Gallup polls,Obama now leads McCain by 5 points.Sounds good,doesn't it?

14 Sept 2008

John McCain would definitely say "Yes it Does",and so would Sarah Palin,and most,if not all,of the Republicans.However,it is claimed that violence is down in Iraq,not because of the surge,but rather the domination of the Shia and Iran in the country.HERE is the story.

10 Sept 2008

Kuna hii kitu wanaita The Big Bang Theory inaelekea kuwachanganya watu wengi wakiwamo wanasayansi wenyewe.Kwa vile mie sio mzuri sana kwenye maeneo hayo,BONYEZA HAPA kupata undani zaidi wa hii kitu.

Kwa upande wa siasa za Marekani,kuna wanaomuona Sarah Palin kuwa hana tofauti na Islamic fundamentalists ambao mgombea-mwenza wake,John McCain,amefanya kuwa moja ya ajenda zake kuu za kushinda uchaguzi.Habari nzima iko HAPA

Na burudani kidogo kutoka kwa John Legend ft Andre 3000 katika Green Light.

5 Mar 2008

Hatimaye Seneta wa Arizona (Republican) John McCain ameshinda nomination ya chama chake kugombea Urais wa Marekani baadaye mwaka huu baada ya kufanikiwa kupata delegates 1195.Kwa mujibu wa Breaking news hii ya CNN,inatarajiwa kuwa kesho (kwa saa za US of A,maana hapa tayari ni Jumatano) Rais George W.Bush atam-endorse rasmi McCain.Kazi kubwa iliyobaki mbele ya Seneta huyo ni kuwaunganisha Republicans wenzie,hususan wale wanaodai kuwa he's not conservative enough kama Rush Limbaugh,Sean Hannity,Ann Coulter na wengineo.Baada ya hapo kinafuatia kimuhemuhe cha kuingia 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW dhidi ya Barack Obama au Hillary Clinton.


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