Magazeti ya Tanzania Leo Jumapili 19.01.13: JK Kutangaza Baraza jipya la Mawaziri Leo?

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Kifo cha Mkuu wa zamani wa Ushushushu Rwanda na 'maisha ya roho mkononi' kwa ma-spy 'wastaafu'

Makala kuhusu kifo cha shushushu mkuu wa zamani wa Rwanda, Patrick Karegeya by Evarist Chahali

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Makala yangu Ktk RAIA MWEMA Toleo la 15.01.14: "Zitto na ushujaa wa kuonja sumu"

KATIKA hitimisho la makala yangu iliyochapishwa wiki mbili zilizopita, iliyobeba kichwa cha habari ‘Ni mwaka wa siasa za hovyo CCM, CHADEMA, niliahidi kuendeleza utabiri wa mwaka huu 2014, kwa kuangalia anga za kimataifa.

Kwa bahati nzuri, siku nne tu baada ya kuchapishwa makala hiyo, moja ya mambo niliyotabiri - kuendelea kwa mgogoro wa CHADEMA na uwezekano wa migogoro ndani ya vyama vya upinzani kuwa ya hadharani - limetokea.

Ninaomba niweke bayana kuwa masikitiko yangu kuhusu maendeleo mapya katika mgogoro wa CHADEMA ni makubwa zaidi ya furaha yangu kuona nilichotabiri wiki iliyopita kweli kimetokea. Nitakuwa mbinafsi na mnafiki ‘kusherehekea usahihi wa utabiri wangu’ katika jambo lisilopendeza. Laiti ingekuwa ni chaguo langu basi ningetamani mabaya yote niliyotabiri yasitokee, lakini kwa bahati mbaya hali halisi haikwepeki.

Takriban wiki mbili zilizopita, Mbunge wa Kigoma Kaskazini (CHADEMA) Zitto Kabwe alirusha ‘bomu zito’ ambapo alitoa tuhuma kubwa na hatari dhidi ya Mwenyekiti wake taifa wa chama hicho, Freeman Mbowe, na chama hicho kwa ujumla. Pengine ili kuleta ladha halisi ya alichosema Zitto ni vema nikanuu ‘waraka’ mzima kama ifuatavyo:

"Lissu anasema nimepewa magari 2 na Mzee Mkono. Anasema kaambiwa na Mkono. Naamini Mkono alimwambia pia mwaka 2005 alimpa Freeman Aikaeli Mbowe tshs 40m ili Mbowe asifanye kampeni Musoma Vijijini.

“Nadhani alimwambia pia mwaka 2008 (baada ya orodha ya mafisadi kutangazwa 2007) Mkono alimpa Freeman tshs 20m za uchaguzi wa Tarime na Freeman akasema kwenye chama ametoa mkopo na akalipwa. Nadhani alimwambia pia kuwa mwaka 2010 Mkono alimpa Mbowe tshs 200m za kampeni ya Slaa.

“Pia hakusahau kumwambia kuwa Rostam Aziz alimpa Mbowe tshs 100m za kampeni. Lissu anajua kuwa gazeti la Tanzania Daima limeanzishwa na fedha za chama kutoka Conservative Party?

“Nimefanya internship yangu kwa Mkono and Company Advocates kuhusu masuala ya mikataba. Mzee Mkono ni Mzee wangu na alisaini petition ya kumtoa Waziri Mkuu Pinda. Lissu awaambie waliyemtuma wamwambie ukweli wote. Lissu ajue yeye ni kifaranga tu, Mimi namtaka mama wa kifaranga ajitokeze. Aeleze aliingia deal gani na Kinana na Sumaye mwaka 2005 kufuatia deni lake NSSF. Aweke wazi mkataba kati yake na NHC kuhusu nyumba ya umma ilipo Club Bilicanas.

“They must know I am not a push over. Chacha died, I won't. Mtu ambaye hawezi kuheshimu mke wake aliyemzalia watoto hawezi kunyooshea mtu kidole kuhusu maadili."

Zitto alibandika waraka huo katika ukurasa wake wa mtandao wa kijamii wa Facebook, lakini kwa sababu anazojua yeye pekee, baadaye aliuhariri na kutojumuisha tuhuma hizo. Aidha kwa kutofahamu au makusudi, uhariri uliofanywa na mwanasiasa huyo katika waraka huo haukuzuia kusambaa kwa kasi mtandaoni.

Niliposoma waraka huo nilipatwa na mshtuko mkubwa, nikabaki ninajiuliza iwapo Zitto alikuwa ‘mzima’ wakati anaandika alichoandika.  Japo inawezekana alifanya hivyo kwa kuzingatia kile kinachofahamika mtaani kama ‘umemwaga ugali na mie namwaga mboga...bora tukose wote,” ukweli ni kwamba bandiko hilo lina madhara makubwa, kwa Zitto binafsi na kwa pengine ustawi wa CHADEMA kwa ujumla.

Madhara kwa Zitto ni ya kisheria zaidi. Tayari Mbowe ameonyesha nia ya kumburuza Zitto mahakamani kuthibitisha tuhuma hizo nzito. Bila kujali kuwa tuhuma hizo zina ukweli au la, mtu yeyote mwenye uelewa wa ‘dili za siri’ atafahamu kuwa ni vigumu kuzithibitisha kisheria, yayumkinika kuhisi kuwa Zitto atakuwa na kazi ya ziada katika ‘kesi’ hiyo (iwapo itafunguliwa).

Iwe ni tuhuma za Nimrod Mkono kumpa Mbowe shilingi milioni 260 katika mazingira ambayo si tatanishi tu bali pia kwa namna fulani ni hujuma dhidi ya CHADEMA, au Rostam Aziz kumpatia Mbowe shilingi milioni 100, au ‘dili’ kati ya Mbowe na Waziri Mkuu wa zamani, Frederick Sumaye na Katibu Mkuu wa CCM Abdulrahman Kinana, sidhani kama Zitto anaweza kuthibitisha tuhuma hizo iwapo Mbowe atatimiza azma yake ya kufungua kesi. 

Je, inawezekana kuwa kwa kutambua ‘kosa hilo la kisheria’ ndio maana muda mfupi baadaye Zitto alihariri ‘post’ hiyo? Wakati jibu analo Zitto mwenyewe, ukweli unabaki kuwa tuhuma hizo ni nzito mno, na iwapo ni za kweli basi zinapoteza kabisa hadhi ya CHADEMA.

Ikumbukwe kuwa katika waraka uliopelekea Zitto kuvuliwa nyadhifa zake mbalimbali ndani ya CHADEMA, walioandika waraka huo waligusia walichokiita ‘udhaifu wa wanayemtaka’ (wakimaanisha Zitto), na kudai, “Maneno yake mara nyingine hayazingatii anayazungumza katika mazingira gani na hivyo kuwasha masikio ya wanataasisi jambo linalompunguzia kukubalika kwake taratibu.” 

Kadhalika, walieleza kuwa; “Kuna wakati tunayemtaka (Zitto) hujibu kwa taharuki kubwa dhidi ya mashambulizi yanayoelekezwa kwake jambo linalomfanya achukue maamuzi yasiyo sahihi kwa wakati huo. Kwa kifupi kuna wakati tunayemtaka (Zitto) huonekana kufanya maamuzi kwa hisia zaidi badala ya kutulia kwanza na kutafakari kwa kina ikiwa ni pamoja na kutafuta ushauri kwa wenzake kabla ya kujibu.”

Ndugu msomaji, huhitaji kuwa mwanasaikolojia kuhisi kuwa huenda kilichomsukuma Zitto kuandika ‘waraka’ huo kwenye ukurasa wake wa Facebook ni kile Waingereza wanakiita “putting emotions in front of common sense”, yaani kwa tafsiri isiyo rasmi, kuweka mbele jazba badala ya busara.

Kwa kujaribu kuonyesha kuwa Mbowe si mwadilifu (kwa maana ya kupokea misaada kutoka kwa ‘wanasiasa kama Mkono na Rostam waliowahi kutajwa na CHADEMA kuwa ni mafisadi’), linakuja swali la msingi, kwanini Zitto alikalia kimya tuhuma hizo nzito kwa takriban miaka minane hadi sasa baada ya kuvuliwa madaraka? Hivi kuna neno stahili kuelezea hali hiyo zaidi ya unafiki?

Tukiamini tuhuma hizo za Zitto, je naye si sehemu ya ‘uhuni wa CHADEMA’ wa kukemea mafisadi hadharani ilhali pembeni wanapokea misaada ya watu hao hao wanaowatuhumu? Ninasema hivyo kwa sababu Zitto hakuwa katibu wa shina bali Naibu Katibu Mkuu (taifa)  wa chama hicho, na mbunge, na kwa vyovyote vile naye ni mnufaika wa fedha hizo ‘za mafisadi.’

Laiti angekuwa haridhii vitendo hivyo basi aidha angejitoa mhanga na kuweka ukweli hadharani wakati huo (na hiyo ingeweza kuzuia kurejea kwa vitendo kama hivyo) au angeweza kujiuzulu kwa kuona ‘chama chake kinashirikiana na watuhumiwa wa ufisadi. Kwa nini hakufanya hivyo? Jibu jepesi ni hilo nililoandika hapo juu: alikuwa mnufaika wa vitendo hivyo (iwapo kweli vilitokea, maana tayari baadhi ya aliowataja wamekanusha ‘kumpa msaada’ Mbowe).

Binafsi, ninadhani moja ya matatizo yanayomkabili Zitto ni wanaojiita au kujitambulisha kama wafuasi wake. Wengi kati yao ni wenye mapenzi na CCM, na ushabiki wao kwa Zitto ni wa kirafiki (kimaslahi?) zaidi. Ndio, tofauti za kiitikadi hazimaanishi uadui, lakini wengi wetu tunaufahamu msemo ‘nionyeshe marafiki zako na nitakwambia wewe ni nani,’ yaani mara nyingi watu wanaotuzunguka hutoa picha fulani kuhusu sisi wenyewe.

Lakini tatizo jingine kuhusu ‘wafuasi na marafiki hao wa Zitto’ ni kutokuwa washauri wazuri kwake. Ukisoma mengi ya wanayoandika, hususan huko kwenye mitandao ya twitter, utabaini kuwa kimsingi wanachofanya ni ‘kumvimbisha kichwa Zitto’ bila kutoa ushauri unaoweza kusaidia ustawi wa kisiasa wa mwanasiasa huyo kijana.

Na mfano wa hivi karibuni ni baada ya Zitto kubandika waraka huo wenye tuhuma nzito huko Facebook. Wengi wa wafuasi wake walionekana kuchekelea ‘Mbowe alivyoumbuka’ bila kujali athari za kisheria kwa Zitto na ustawi wa CHADEMA kwa ujumla (kwanini wajali ilhali wengi wao ni wanaCCM)?

Kwa wafuasi wa Zitto, mwanasiasa huyo ni majeruhi wa siasa za chuki na mizengwe ndani ya CHADEMA. Lakini kwa wengine, Zitto anaonekana kama mtu anayeendeshwa na ‘ego’ kubwa inayomfanya kujiona yeye ndiye-au zaidi ya- CHADEMA.

Ni vigumu kubashiri hatma ya maisha ya kisiasa ya Zitto lakini kwa hali ilivyo ni vigumu mno kuona mustakabali wake ndani ya chama hicho. Ninakumbuka mwanasafu mmoja wa gazeti hili alimshauri mwanasiasa huyo hivi karibuni kuwa suluhisho la busara kwake kwa sasa ni kutosubiri kuvuliwa uanachama, ajiondoe mwenyewe huko CHADEMA, na kuitaka Mahakama isiingilie kazi ya chama.

Mwisho, bado ninaamini kuwa Zitto ni mwanasiasa mzuri lakini pengine kwa upungufu wa kibinadamu au makusudi, washauri wabovu au sababu nyinginezo, hazingatii umuhimu wa busara hizi tatu katika medani ya siasa: moja, waweke marafiki zako karibu lakini waweke maadui zako karibu zaidi, na pili, hakuna marafiki au maadui wa kudumu katika siasa, na tatu, hakuna mwanasiasa anayeweza kuwa mbadala wa chama (hasa katika mazingira ya siasa zetu ambapo kwa kiasi kikubwa chombo pekee cha uongozi wa kisiasa ni chama cha siasa. Bila chama, mwanasiasa hata awe maarufu kiasi gani anabaki kuwa raia wa kawaida tu).

Katika waraka wake, Zitto aliandika, “They must know I am not a push over. Chacha died, I won't” (lazima wafahamu mie sio mtu wa ‘kupelekeshwa.’ Chacha (Wangwe?) alikufa, mimi sitokufa). Hiki ni kiburi, utoto au? Ni mwanadamu mwenye uhakika wa kutokufa? Nihitimishe kwa kumshauri kwamba labda kweli ana uhakika wa kuishi milele lakini kwa kutanguliza hisia badala ya busara, yayumkinika kubashiri kuwa anaweza kuwa anajiua mwenyewe kisiasa (committing political suicide).

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Ligi Kuu England: Gazeti Maarufu Latabiri Matokeo Mechi zilizosalia...na Bingwa wa Ligi Hiyo

Gazeti maarufu la Daily Mail la hapa Uingereza limetabiri matokeo ya mechi zilizosalia katika Ligi Kuu ya England, na hatimaye bingwa wa ligi hiyo maarufu duniani.

Round 30

Aston Villa 1 Chelsea 2

Everton 1 Cardiff 0

Hull City 2 Man City 2

Man Utd 1 Liverpool 1

Spurs 1 Arsenal 2

 

Round 31

Cardiff 2 Liverpool 2

Chelsea 1 Arsenal 1

Everton 1 Swansea 1

Man City 5 Fulham 0

Spurs 2 Southampton 2

West Ham 2 Man Utd 1

 

Round 32

Arsenal 2 Man City 1

Crystal Palace 0 Chelsea 1

Fulham 1 Everton 1

Liverpool 2 Spurs 0

Man Utd 2 Aston Villa 0

 

Round 33

Chelsea 3 Stoke 1

Everton 1 Arsenal 1

Man City 2 Southampton 0

Newcastle 1 Man Utd 2

Spurs 1 Sunderland 1

West Ham 2 Liverpool 2 

So close: Olivier Giroud is denied during Arsenal and Chelsea's stalemate in December

Crisis: Manchester United were beaten 1-0 by Newcastle United in November, can they exact their revenge on Tyneside?

Round 34

Arsenal 3 West Ham 1

Liverpool 3 Man City 2

Man Utd 1 Hull City 0

Sunderland 0 Everton 1

Swansea 0 Chelsea 0

West Brom 1 Spurs 2

 

Round 35

Chelsea 2 Sunderland 0

Everton 2 Man Utd 1

Hull 1 Arsenal 1

Man City 3 West Brom 0

Norwich 1 Liverpool 4

Spurs 1 Fulham 0

 

Round 36

Arsenal 3 Newcastle 0

Crystal Palace 1 Man City 3

Liverpool 2 Chelsea 1

Man Utd 3 Norwich 0

Southampton 1 Everton 1

Stoke 1 Spurs 1 

Round 37

Arsenal 3 West Brom 0

Chelsea 4 Norwich 0

Crystal Palace 1 Liverpool 1

Everton 1 Man City 0

Man Utd 1 Sunderland 0

West Ham 1 Spurs 2 

Two good: Mesut Ozil was among the goals as Arsenal enjoyed a 2-0 victory over Hull City in December

THE LAST DAY OF THE SEASON  

Standings going into the final day

Manchester City 84 points

Chelsea 82

Liverpool 79

Arsenal 78

Tottenham 67

Everton 65

Manchester United 65

 

Round 38

Cardiff 1 Chelsea 3

Liverpool 3 Newcastle 0

Hull 2 Everton 2

Man City 3 West Ham 1

Norwich 1 Arsenal 2

Southampton 1 Man Utd 2

Spurs 2 Aston Villa 0

 

Scroll down for the predicted final top seven

Champions: Our calculations have Manchester City winning the trophy they lifted in 2012

Good Kompany: City skipper Vincent Kompany could be set for another bus-top parade with the Premier League trophy

Ed boys: We believe that Manchester City and Edin Dzeko will be celebrating a title win come May

Final table (top seven)

1st Man City..........87pts

City's formidable home form proves the difference as they reclaim the title and Manuel Pellegrini celebrates his first season with the championship crown. They see out the season with a perfect home record, Chelsea the only one of their top-seven rivals still to visit the Etihad. Back-to-back away losses at Arsenal and Liverpool trigger fears of a late stutter, but they recover to confirm their title with a final-day victory over West Ham.

2nd Chelsea.........85pts

The Chelsea of old under Jose Mourinho shines through as the season draws to its close and they finish the campaign just two points shy of the champions. February's defeat at the Etihad proves costly, as does a late-season reverse at Liverpool, but they still take the race to the wire. 

3rd Liverpool........82pts

The return of Daniel Sturridge, allied to Luis Suarez's unrelenting brilliance, sees the Reds win the next six, including victory in the Merseyside derby. A string of away draws curtails their title challenge but still they finish just five points adrift of the winners and claim third position ahead of Arsenal.

4th Arsenal...........81pts

With their squad stretched as the season gathers pace and European football returns, the Gunners' title aspirations fade. They do enjoy a home victory over Man City and are beaten just twice - at Liverpool and Stoke - between now and the end of the season, but Arsene Wenger's wait for a fourth title is extended to at least 11 years.

5th Spurs..............70pts

The top four prove too strong for the other challengers and crucial defeats against rivals Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool do for their Champions League ambitions. Still, though, Tim Sherwood's boys do enough to hold off Man Utd and Everton to take fifth position and Europa League qualification - they're sure to be thrilled with that...

6th Man Utd..........68pts

Inconsistency continues to plague United's title defence and the now customary defeat by their city adversaries sparks yet more talk of crisis for David Moyes. They do win the last three to take sixth position ahead of Everton, but will that be enough to earn Moyes another season at Old Trafford?

7th Everton...........66pts

Draws prove the Toffees' undoing as their failure to turn one point into three sees their Champions League hopes slip away. It's still a respectable return for Roberto Martinez in his first season at Goodison Park, although they are pipped to sixth by former boss Moyes.

 

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TANZANIA JOINS FORCES WITH BRITAIN'S NO. 1 SCHOOL TO UNEARTH FOOTBALL TALENTS

By Jestina George,
“Tanzania has taken the first step towards producing their first Premier League player – thanks to Eton College, England’s premier public school.

Eton Coach, Glen Pierce speaking at the press conference on Friday 10 Jan 2014 at Tanzania House London. 

Together with Safarihub and charity organisation ACE Africa, Eton are sending Glen Pierce, head of sports, plus Ali Lyon, 19, Nicholas Zafirios, 18,  and Tom Pearson,18, who are on a gap year before starting university, to Tanzania to teach local children the finer arts of football.

Ali has already passed his  Level 1 Football Association coaching badge and the quartet cannot wait for the challenge ahead of them.

Coach Glen Pierce with Eton students who will be travelling to Tanzania, Nicolas Zafiriou, Ali Lyon and Tom Pearson

Pierce said: “We are about to embark on a wonderful trip. I have taught at Eton for 27 years and was offered the opportunity to take a sabbatical. This is an chance to see a new country with boys I tutored. We shall be going into schools to coach and to encourage kids to attend school through football. If they do not go to school they will not have this opportunity. We want to attract them to go to school and football is the icing on the cake. I hope the boys will be an encouragement to local kids.”

Eton was founded in 1440 and among the college’s more recent famous old boys are Prime Minister David Cameron, Mayor of London Boris Johnson, the Archbishop of Canterbury plus Prince Harry and Prince William, who Pierce taught.

Minister Counsellor  Amos Msanjila speaking Freddy Macha & Urban Pulse

Amos Msanjila, Minister Counselor of the High Commission, did not hide his pride about the venture. He said: “We are honoured to have the boys going because Eton is not a normal school. In Tanzania we do not have a culture of different schools, but I have been in England long enough to know which school you attend matters. Eton has produced 19 Prime Ministers so, as I said, it is not a normal school. The boys could have gone to any country in Africa, indeed in the world, and we have so much pleasure that they chose Tanzania.” 

Director of  Safari Hub, Dilip Navapurkar  speaking at the press conference on Friday 10 Jan 2014 at Tanzania House London.

Dilip Navapurkar from Safarihub said: “I recently formed the company and one aim is to set up a pilot scheme to play football. We hope to see Tanzania qualify for the World Cup for the first time and produce some top-class Premier League footballers, but it will not happen overnight.

"Tanzania has the raw talent, it is our belief that we will one day produce players who will perform on the world's biggest stage."

John Collenette, chairman of ACE Africa and Future Stars Academy, said: “I have been in Tanzania for five years and I am particularly excited about this venture. Children have different problems to confront in their daily lives and we are committed to help them.”

High Commissioner Peter Kallaghe speaking at the press conference on Friday 10 Jan 2014 at Tanzania House London.

Peter Kallaghe, the High Commissioner, hosted a reception in London on Friday to announce the collaboration with Eton College and sent the football party away with his best wishes. He said:“We are greatly honoured by this initiative. We are fully behind a wonderful plan. Eton has produced 19 British Prime Ministers, maybe we have the 20th travelling to Tanzania this weekend."

High Commissioner Pete Kallaghe poses with guests after the press conference.
Images by Urban Pulse

-- Regards, Jestina George 

Mobile +44 7404 332 910/+44 7557 304 940 

Email: [email protected]            [email protected] 

website: www.jestina-george.com 

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@TheSporahShow Brings you WOMEN LIVING WITH H.I.V (Video)

It really takes a lot of courage for a woman to stand up and say she's got HIV or living with HIV" and on The Sporah Show we had fantastic, fabulous, beautiful African women to share their stories.
On the same day we had Miss Uganda UK 2013 contestants at the show and they had a great opportunity to raise their concern regarding people living with HIV. Very very sad stories but uplifting!!!
HIV IS NO LONGER A DEATH PENALTY THESE DAYS...

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UNMISSABLE: RadioMbao Presents 'DJ KVELLI's END OF THE YEAR 2013 MIX PART 1' (Download Links included)

This is my new Mix..I did the mix live on air on Radio Mbao ( www.radiombao.com), The Mix is dedicated to all listeners of Radio Mbao in 103 countries.The mix has bongo flava bangers from year 2013 and some few Kenyans bangers too. You can find my mix on hulkshare ,soundcloud, & Mixcrate.. Justsearch #RadioMbaoEndOfTheYearMix#EndOfTheYearMix #RadioMbao #DjKvelli

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Joe Kahama Ashiriki Harambee ya Ujenzi wa Kanisa Kimkunda,Kyaka,Awatia Homa Wabunge

Joe Kahama (mwenye miwani na shati la draft) akiwa na waumini katika ibada na baadaye harambee ya kuchangia ujenzi wa Kanisda la Kimkunda,Kyaka,mkoani Kagera. Katika shughuli hiyo, Joe aliwatia homa wabunge wa majimbo ya eneo hilo pale alipoeleza kuwa hatoongea sana lakini watarajie kumsikia sana siku za mbele. Katika hafla hiyo, Joe alichangia shilingi milioni 3 na kushiriki mnada kwa ajili ya ujenzi wa Kanisa hilo. Picha zifuatazo ni za tukio hilo

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Makala yangu ktk RAIA MWEMA 01.01.14: "Utabiri: 2014 ni mwaka wa siasa za ovyo CCM,Chadema"

HERI ya mwaka mpya wasomaji wapendwa wa safu hii na gazeti hili kwa ujumla. Kumaliza mwaka si jambo dogo na kuanza mwaka mpya pia kunahitaji tafakuri nzito, hasa tukizingatia yaliyojiri katika mwaka uliopita 2013.

Katika makala hii nitajaribu kurejea nilichokifanya mwanzoni mwa mwaka 2012, yaani kubashiri mwelekeo wa masuala mbalimbali, hususan huko nyumbani.

Mwanzoni mwa mwaka jana sikufanya hivyo kwa sababu mbalimbali za msingi, mojawapo ikiwa dalili kuwa mengi ya yaliyojiri 2012 yangejitokeza tena 2013

Mwaka huu 2014 unatarajiwa kuwa na tofauti za msingi kulinganisha na mwaka jana, kubwa zaidi likiwa harakati za kuelekea katika Uchaguzi Mkuu hapo mwakani.

Mara kadhaa nimeandika kuwa ukweli una tabia moja kuu: kuuchukia hakuufanyi uwe uongo. Na moja ya ukweli mbaya kuhusu mwaka huu ni uwezekano wa kushuhudia vihoja ambavyo huenda havijawahi kutokea katika historia ya taifa letu.

Vihoja ninavyobashiri kutokea vitahusu mtifuano mkubwa ndani ya chama tawala CCM, chama kikuu cha upinzani CHADEMA, na kwa kiasi fulani katika baadhi ya vyama 'vidogo' vya upinzani kama vile CUF, NCCR-Mageuzi, TLP na UDP.

Ninabashiri kwamba takriban vyama vyote hivyo vitayumbishwa na migogoro ya wazi au ya siri, aidha kati ya viongozi au wanachama wenye nia ya kuteuliwa kuwa wagombea urais kupitia tiketi za vyama vyao au makundi yao (hili la makundi ni kwa CCM zaidi).

Wakati ninabashiri mtifuano ndani ya CCM kuwa wa dalili zaidi kuliko kujitanabaisha hadharani, kwa CHADEMA na vyama vingine vya upinzani hali inatarajiwa kuwa tofauti ambapo baadhi ya wanasiasa wataweka kando maslahi ya vyama hivyo na kupambana hadharani.

Kubwa zaidi ninalotarajia kuliona ni mwendelezo wa mgogoro uliopo ndani ya CHADEMA, ambapo aliyekuwa Naibu Katibu Mkuu, Zitto Kabwe ataendelea kuwa 'tatizo' kwa viongozi wenzake, hususan Mwenyekiti Freeman Mbowe na Katibu Mkuu Dokta Willbroad Slaa.

Japo hili sina hakika nalo sana lakini kuna uwezekano wa aidha Zitto kufukuzwa au yeye mwenyewe kujiondoa katika chama hicho. Yoyote kati ya hatua hizo halitasaidia kumaliza mgogoro ndani ya chama hicho kwani kuna uwezekano wa 'masalia ya Zitto' kuendeleza harakati za 'mageuzi' aliyoyaasisi.

Ni vigumu kutabiri hatma ya CHADEMA siku kama leo hapo mwakani lakini ninabashiri kuwa chama hicho hakitakufa bali kuna uwezekano wa kuathiriwa kwa kiasi kikubwa na mgogoro huo, kiasi cha kutokuwa tishio la kubwa kwa CCM.

Kwa upande wa vyama vingine, ninatabiri uwezekano wa kuwepo harakati za kuwang'oa "wagombea urais wa kudumu" yaani Seif Sharrif Hamad na Ibrahim Lipumba kwa upande wa CUF, John Cheyo kwa UDP na Augustine Mrema kwa TLP. Harakati hizo zinaweza kusababisha vyama hivyo kudidimia zaidi ya ilivyo sasa. Binafsi sioni dalili za vyama hivyo kuimarika hata kama vitapata safu mpya za wagombea au viongozi.

Moja ya matukio makubwa yanayoweza kutokea ni kuibuka kwa chama kipya ambacho kitaimarishwa na kujiunga kwa wanasiasa maarufu. Kuna uwezekano pia kuwa chama hicho kisiwe kipya bali ni miongoni mwa vyama vilivyopo, huku ubashiri wangu ukiiona NCCR - Mageuzi kama yenye uwezekano wa kunufaika na hali hiyo.

Kwa upande wa CCM, sioni dalili ya 'machafuko' tofauti na hali ilivyo sasa. Uwezekano mkubwa ni kuongezeka na kushamiri kwa kile kinachofahamika kama siasa za majitaka ambapo maovu ya kweli au ya kusingiziwa yatawekwa hadharani ili kupunguza kasi za baadhi ya wenye nia ya kugombea urais kwa tiketi ya chama hicho.

Kuna uwezekano, japo pengine si mkubwa, wa baadhi ya vigogo wa chama hicho kuhama baada ya kubaini kuwa wana nafasi finyu ya kuteuliwa kumrithi Rais Jakaya Kikwete kwa tiketi ya CCM. Moja ya wanasiasa wanaoweza kuachana na chama hicho ni Waziri Mkuu wa zamani, Frederick Sumaye.

Inaniwia vigumu kufanya ubashiri wa kueleweka kuhusu CCM kwa vile hadi ninapoandaa makala hii bado kuna dalili ya mabadiliko katika Baraza la Mawaziri. Ni wazi, iwapo Rais Jakaya Kikwete ataamua kumwondoa Waziri Mkuu Mizengo Pinda (sidhani kama hilo litatokea) yeyote atakayemrithi anaweza kuwa na nafasi nzuri ya kuleta changamoto mpya kwenye kinyang'anyiro cha kumpata mrithi wa Kikwete.

Kwa upande mwingine, ninabashiri kuwa safari mfululizo za Rais Kikwete nje ya nchi zitaendelea kuwepo. Kadhalika, ninabashiri kuwa tutaendelea kusikia habari za ufisadi wa kutisha unaoweza kusababisha Rais Kikwete kufanya mabadiliko mengine katika Baraza lake la Mawaziri.  Uwezekano wa ufisadi zaidi unachangiwa na ukweli kuwa baadhi ya viongozi watakuwa na hakika kuwa hawatorejea bungeni mwaka 2015 na hivyo wataongeza kasi ya ulaji (ufisadi) kwa staili ya 'chukua chako mapema.'

Kadhalika, kutokana na mapambano ndani ya CCM ya kuwania nafasi ya urais mwaka 2015 kwa tiketi ya chama hicho, kuna uwezekano wa kuibuka 'wazalendo feki' watakaoibua taarifa za ufisadi. Ninasema 'feki' kwa sababu kitakachowasukuma kuibua taarifa hizo sio mapenzi yao kwa nchi yetu bali kujisafishia nafasi zao kumrithi Rais Kikwete.

Kwa upande mwingine, ajali zitaendelea kuteketeza maisha ya Watanzania wenzetu na kama ilivyokuwa mwaka jana, habari hizo zitaendelea kuishia kuwa vichwa vya habari vikubwa au ‘breaking news’ pasipo jitihada ya kukabiliana na tatizo hilo la ajali.

Vilevile ninatabiri kuwa tutaendelea kusikia majina ya watu maarufu, hususan wasanii yakihusishwa na biashara ya dawa za kulevya. Japo ninaombea hili lisitokee, kuna uwezekano wa angalau msanii mmoja kututoka kutokana na matumizi ya dawa za kulevya ilhali wasanii kadhaa wanaweza kukamatwa nje ya nchi (hususan Mashariki ya Mbali) wakiwa na shehena za mihadarati.

Kisichonipa shida kubashiri ni uwezekano wa wazi kuwa hakuna kigogo yeyote wa biashara hiyo ya dawa za kulevya atakayekamatwa japo kuna uwezekano wa majina makubwa kufahamika kuwa yanajihusisha na biashara hiyo haramu.

Vilevile, matukio ya utekaji, utesaji na hata vifo dhidi ya wanahabari na watetezi wa haki za jamii au binadamu yataendelea kusikika. Kuna uwezekano wa kujitokeza wanahabari au wanaharakati watakaojitoa mhanga kuripoti kwa uwazi kuhusu ufisadi na uhalifu wa masuala kama biashara ya mihadarati au ujangili lakini, japo natamani Mungu aepushe, wanaweza kuishia kukumbana na yaliyowakuta Absalom Kibanda, Dk. Steven Ulimboka au Daudi Mwangosi. Ninaomba kusisitiza kuwa uwezekano wa majanga hayo usiwavunje moyo wanahabari na wanaharakati.

Jingine ambalo halinipi shida kutabiri ni mwendelezo wa mgawo wa umeme pasipo maelezo ya kueleweka kutoka serikalini au Tanesco, sambamba na Bunge letu tukufu kuendelea kuwa ukumbi wa mipasho, matusi na hata vurugu, huku kila kikao kikitanguliwa na vichwa vya habari magazetini "Bunge kuwaka moto" (moto huo utaishia kuchoma fedha za walipakodi kwa maana ya maslahi manono kwa wabunge, na si moto wa kutetea maslahi ya wananchi wanaowakilishwa na wabunge hao).

Ninaomba kuhitimisha makala hii kwa kueleza kuwa ninatarajia kufanya utabiri mwingine katika toleo lijalo kuhusu masuala ya kimataifa. Vilevile ninaomba kutoa angalizo kuwa utabiri huu umezingatia mwenendo wa mambo ulivyokuwa mwaka jana na 'hauna mwamana' (guarantee) kuwa kila nilichotabiri kitakuwa hivyo.

Kwa mara nyingine, ninawatakia heri ya mwaka mpya 2014

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